"I'm telling you: the Lebanon Loophole was always baked in. Iran can think whatever it wants and go pound sand." James Lindsay on X
Consider that the many persons and parties yelling that “Iran won the war” have exceedingly cynical interests in painting President Donald Trump as a loser. His American enemies, lodged mainly in the party of “Our Democracy,” are not just striving to get back into power, but to stay out of prison, and perhaps off the gibbet, if treason ends up on the docket. (See: Gabbard Releases Documents on Fauci’s Alleged Role in Wuhan Lab Research Linked to COVID.)
The president’s globalist foes, lodged in the EU and London, resent his unwillingness to join their scheme for a big war against Russia — and are aggrieved about much else in matters of trade, international banking, and energy resources. The ink was hardly dry on the US / Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) when NATO arrantly assisted its proxy, Ukraine, in an audacious drone attack on Moscow. Brussels also stealthily opened “accession talks” for Ukraine and Moldova to enter the EU. More bear-poking. . . .
Just what is the MOU? It’s not a peace settlement. It’s a sixty-day window to negotiate a settlement within clearly laid-out, agreed-upon parameters. You might suppose there’s a fair chance Iran is just jerking the US around. But then, Mr. Trump noted, “. . . if they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head, okay? ‘Cause they’ve misbehaved for 47 years.”
Admittedly, an indelicate remark, yet with unmistakable intent: Jerk us around at your peril. Of course, Mr. Trump has also stated clearly that he would rue having to punish the ordinary Iranian people for the misdeeds of the IRGC maniacs who hold them captive. But also note that we have exquisite satellite intel on all their remaining missile and drone installation. Check out this stunningly detailed document: Atlas of Iran’s Missile Cities (thanks to Jim Shea, who sent it around). We know where everything is. Beyond those targets, if necessary, and alas, there are the bridges and power plants, which would surely cause the Iranian people to suffer. FAFO.
In short, the IRGC leadership have sixty days to get their minds right. On the positive side, the MOU offers them some powerful inducements to play nice in the way of economic assistance, a doorway to normal relations with the rest of the world, a chance to thrive. The question is whether any of that can overcome the IRGC’s apocalyptic “Twelfth Imam” death- wish jihad ideology — which requires the annihilation of Israel.
The MOU requires a ceasefire in Lebanon, where Israel and Hezbollah have faced-off for decades. Mr. Trump is very put-out with Prime Minister Netanyahu for continuing to return fire “disproportionately” on Hezbollah’s provocations. This has led to great consternation and antipathy in the US, which is already marinated in anti-Israel rancor. You might ask, though: if America is obliged to rein-in Israel, is Hezbollah’s long-time sponsor, Iran, not equally obliged to curb Hezbollah’s antics? And you might also ask: if Iran’s money to Hezbollah has been cut off, who is still funding them? Possibly the EU or London? (Just sayin’.)
Mr. Trump’s surprising work-around for that was to suggest that the Syrians go into Lebanon and mop up the floor with Hezbollah. Interesting. Get an Islamic Middle Eastern country to help clean up that mess? Mr. Trump commended Syria’s leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, saying, “He’s done an amazing job of pulling it together. . . . I suggested to Israel to let Syria take care of Hezbollah, because to be honest with you, I think they’d do a better job of doing it . . . . If Israel can’t do the job without killing everyone else, he’ll do the job. Syria will do the job.”
Wild as that sounds, it’s of a piece with the way that Mr. Trump managed to marshal the help of all those Persian Gulf nations in the Iran op so as to end the nuclear threat, and the constant chaos in the region. Who would have imagined that a year ago? Everybody in the region is on the same page now. They want Iran to quit waging jihad. They want to sell oil and natgas and live the good life. We’ll know soon enough how serious Iran is.
The Strait of Hormuz is open for the moment, maybe for all sixty-days of the MOU. Iran’s various media outlets keep saying they intend to operate a tollbooth there eventually. That’s obviously a deal-breaker. It only demonstrates how delusional and untrustworthy they are. The sixty days ahead will be like one of those projects in your college psych lab where you run rats in a Skinner Box. The rat touches one bar, he gets an electric shock. He touches the other bar, he gets a little rat treat. After a while, he learns.
Oh, as I finish up here, it’s just been reported that Ukraine fired off another volley of drones into Moscow overnight and this morning. Russian air defenses claimed to have intercepted hundreds of them, but many damaging strikes landed. One of the targets, an oil refinery hit earlier this week, was hit again. Is it conceivable that “hazelnuts” (Oreshniks) might soon be raining down over Kiev?
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